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作物病虫害预测机理与方法研究进展

花匠小妙招
2024-09-15 11:14

摘要： 我国目前作物病虫害防治普遍存在乱用农药等防治方法不当的情况，给粮食安全带来巨大隐患。有效的病虫害预测是提高作物植保综合防控水平的关键。综述了作物病虫害预测机理与方法研究方面的新进展。在预测机理方面，分析了包括气候背景、气象因子、病虫原分布、寄主状况以及种植模式等因素对农作物病虫害发生流行的影响机制，并根据已有研究结果详细阐述了海温、厄尔尼诺、大气环流等气候背景对病虫害的指示作用，以及温度、降雨、湿度、风、光照等气象因子对病虫害的发生时间、侵染速度、传播及分布的影响。在预测模型方面，对病虫害预测模型进行归纳和总结，分静态模型、时序动态模型和空间传播模型等类型介绍了模型对病虫害发生、发展概率、严重程度、扩散方向、流行趋势等方面的预测方法。最后，对作物病虫害预测技术发展趋势进行展望，从数据、分析方法、尺度、研究和应用模式等方面对后续研究的关键问题进行探讨。

关键词: 病虫害, 预测, 气象, 模型

Abstract: The inappropriate use of pesticides is commonly existing in current prevention and control of crop diseases and insect in China, which has severely endangered the food security. This paper reviewed the latest research progresses in forecasting mechanism and methodology for crop disease and insect pest. About the forecasting mechanism, the paper analyzed many elements affecting the epidemic of crop diseases and insect pests, including climate background, meteorological factors, distribution of diseases and insects, host status, and planting pattern, etc. Besides, the paper also expounded in detail according to existing research results the indicative functions of sea temperature, El Nino, atmospheric circulation, etc. meteorological factors, and influence of meteorological factors like temperature, rainfall, humidity, wind and illumination, etc. on occurrence time, infection speed, spread and distribution of diseases and insect pests. In terms of the forecasting models, three types of models such as the static model, temporal dynamic model, and spatial dispersal model were summarized and introduced. The methodologies for forecasting the occurrence of diseases and insects, severity, dispersal and epidemics were reviewed. Finally, the paper looked forward the future development trend of forecasting technology for crop diseases and insect pests, and discussed the key issues, regarding data, analytical method, scale, research and application pattern, etc..

Key words: disease and insect pest, forecast, meteorology, model