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2000—2020年黄河源区水源涵养能力模拟与分析

花匠小妙招
2025-01-03 05:50

摘要:

黄河源区是黄河流域的重要产水区和水源涵养区，其水源涵养能力对河流上中下游区域的社会经济发展影响重大。基于InVEST模型计算了2000—2020年黄河源区的产水量和水源涵养量，结果表明，多年平均产水总量和水源涵养总量分别为198.8×108和35.3×108 m3。产水量和水源涵养量空间分布基本一致，呈现自东向西、自南向北递减的特点。在研究时段内，二者均呈显著上升趋势，整体上升速率分别为3.8和0.7 mm/a，自东南向西北依次表现为极显著上升、显著上升、轻微上升及没有明显变化。各土地利用类型的水源涵养总量由高到低分别为草地、耕地、湿地、林地、未利用地及城镇用地。降水是导致水源涵养量变化的主要原因，其次是蒸散发和土地利用类型。水源涵养量对不同土地利用类型变化响应的结果表明，湿地面积增大能为黄河源区水源涵养量提供最大的增益，其次为草地，城镇用地面积增大对其增益最小。

Abstract:

The source area of the Yellow River plays a vital role in water yield and conservation within the Yellow River Basin, impacting socio-economic development along the river’s upper, middle, and lower reaches. This study employs the InVEST model to analyze the water yield and conservation capacity of the Yellow River source area from 2000 to 2020. The findings indicate an average annual water yield of 198.8×108 m3 and a water conservation capacity of 35.3×108 m3. Spatially, both water yield and conservation capacity exhibit similar patterns, gradually decreasing from east to west and south to north. Over the study period, both metrics display a significant increasing trend, with growth rates of 3.8 mm/a and 0.7 mm/a, respectively. Notably, the increase varies across regions, ranging from highly significant to no significant change as one moves from the southeast to the northwest. The land use types with the highest to lowest total water conservation capacities are grassland, cropland, wetland, forest, bareland, and urban land. Precipitation serves as the primary driver of water conservation changes, followed by evapotranspiration and land use. Furthermore, the study reveals that an increase in wetland area yields the greatest improvement in water conservation within the Yellow River source area, followed by grassland, while an increase in urban land area provides the least improvement.

图 1 黄河源区示意

Figure 1. The source region of the Yellow River

图 2 黄河源区土地利用类型

Figure 2. Land use/land cover types found in the source area of the Yellow River

图 3 产水量与经验常数(Z)关系

Figure 3. The correlation between water yield and the empirical constant (Z)

图 4 2000—2020年地类转移情况

注：由于黄河源区地类发生变化的面积占比很小，因此图中仅展示发生变化的部分。

Figure 4. Transition matrix of land use/land cover from 2000 to 2020

图 5 2000—2020年黄河源区各地类面积变化

Figure 5. The temporal variation of land use/land cover types in the Yellow River source area from 2000 to 2020

图 6 2000—2020年黄河源区产水量

Figure 6. Water yield trends in the Yellow River source area from 2000 to 2020

图 7 2000—2020年黄河源区水源涵养量

Figure 7. Water conservation capacity trends in the Yellow River source area from 2000 to 2020

图 8 2000—2020年黄河源区不同地类的水源涵养量

注：***、**和*分别表示在0.01、0.05和0.1显著性水平下，显著增加。

Figure 8. Water conservation capacity of different land use/land cover types in the Yellow River source area from 2000 to 2020

图 9 仅降水发生变化时水源涵养量的变化

Figure 9. Changes in water conservation capacity due to variations in precipitation alone

图 10 仅潜在蒸散发发生变化时水源涵养量的变化

Figure 10. Changes in water conservation capacity due to changes in potential evapotranspiration alone

图 11 仅地类发生变化时水源涵养量的变化

注：r为该地类水源涵养量与该地类面积的相关系数，R2表示线性拟合的决定系数。

Figure 11. Changes in water conservation capacity due to changes in land use/land cover types alone

表 1 土地利用类型

Table 1 Land use/land cover categories

代码本研究
土地利用类型欧空局
土地利用类型 1耕地雨养农地水淹或灌溉农地耕作(50%~70%)/其他自然植被镶嵌耕作(20%~50%)/其他自然植被镶嵌2林地郁闭或敞开(>15%)常绿阔叶林郁闭或敞开(>15%)落叶阔叶林郁闭或敞开(>15%)常绿针叶林郁闭或敞开(>15%)落叶针叶林林地(>50%)/草地(<50%)镶嵌灌木3草地草地(>50%)/林地(<50%)镶嵌草地4未利用地稀疏植被裸地5水域水体永久冰雪6湿地水淹林地有规律水淹或长期水淹草地7城镇用地人工地表或附属区域

表 2 趋势检验P值和$ tau $值及其对应的趋势类别

Table 2 Trend test results for P and τ values and their corresponding trend categories

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