湖南省夏秋季一次典型积层混合云系飞机人工增雨作业分析
摘要： 综合利用模式、卫星、雷达、探空等资料,对湖南省一次受热带低压外围云系影响的典型积层混合云系降水过程进行作业条件分析,设计飞机人工增雨作业方案并开展作业,采用统计检验和直观对比物理检验方法对这次飞机增雨过程进行效果分析。分析显示,此次热带低压外围云系过程的天气系统配置有利于湖南省降水的发生,模式指标预报结果表明,湖南省西南部云水含量充足,过冷水含量充沛,冰晶数浓度不足,有较好的冷云催化增雨潜力;设计的飞行作业方案与实际飞行轨迹基本一致;通过卫星、雷达、探空等综合探测资料进行针对性分析,检验了此次飞行作业区域、部位、时机选择的合理性;飞机增雨作业前雷达回波分布比较均匀,作业时雷达回波反射率明显增强,强回波区域和数量均明显增加,作业后统计区域回波减弱,有明显的催化效果;此次飞机增雨过程增雨率为23.71%,增加水量约1340万t。
关键词: 人工增雨, 积层混合云, 作业条件, 效果评估
Abstract: Comprehensive utilization of model,satellite,radar,sounding and other data to analyze the operating conditions of a typical mixed convective stratiform cloud system affected by a tropical low-pressure peripheral cloud system in Hunan.The operation scheme of aircraft artificial precipitation enhancement was designed and carried out.Precipitation enhancement effect was also analyzed through statistical test and intuitionistic physical test.The analysis showed that the weather system configuration of the tropical low-pressure outer cloud system was conducive to the occurrence of precipitation in Hunan.The model index forecast results showed that the cloud water content in southwest of Hunan was sufficient and the supercooled water content was abundant,while the ice crystal number concentration was insufficient,which indicated that there was a good potential for cloud-catalyzed rainfall enhancement.The designed flight operation scheme was basically consistent with the actual flight trajectory.The rationality of the selection of the flight operation area,location and timing selection was verified through the targeted analysis of the comprehensive detection data such as satellite,radar and sounding.The radar echo distribution was relatively uniform before the aircraft rain enhancement operation.During the operation,the radar echo reflectance was significantly enhanced,and the strong echo area and number were significantly increased.The statistical area echo was weakened after the operation.It had a obvious catalytic effect.The rain enhancement rate of this rain process was23.71%,and the amount of increased water was about13.4 million tons.
Key words: artificial precipitation enhancement, mixed convective stratiform cloud, operation conditions, effect evaluation
中图分类号:
P481
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