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基于MaxEnt模型的湖南省光叶水青冈潜在适生区预测

花匠小妙招
2025-05-12 00:06

摘要：

光叶水青冈是我国特有的珍稀树种,预测其在湖南省的潜在适生区并分析影响分布的主导环境因子,对该物种的保护具有重要意义。基于湖南省野外调查记录的117个光叶水青冈分布点,选取22个影响分布的环境变量,采用MaxEnt模型,预测其潜在适生区。结果表明:1)MaxEnt模型的AUC平均值为0.933,表明模型预测精度高,结果具有可靠性,能较好地反映光叶水青冈在湖南省的潜在适生区域。2)影响光叶水青冈在湖南省适生区分布的4个关键因素依次为降水量季节性变异系数、最干季平均气温、年降水量和最湿季平均气温。3)光叶水青冈在湖南省的适生区总面积为9.30×104 km2,其中高、中适生区3.10×104 km2,主要分布于雪峰山脉、南岭山脉、衡山山脉,包括邵阳市西部、怀化市南部、娄底市西北部、益阳市西南部以及衡阳市北部;低适生区6.20×104 km2,主要集中在常德市、岳阳市、益阳市、长沙市、衡阳市的低海拔地区。气候是影响光叶水青冈在湖南省地理分布格局的主要因素,降水量充足且季节性降水变异性小的高海拔阳坡或半阳坡地区可能更适合光叶水青冈的引种与保护。

关键词: MaxEnt 模型, 光叶水青冈, 潜在适生区

Abstract:

Fagus lucida is a rare and endemic tree species in China.Predicting the potential suitable area of Fagus lucida in Hunan Province and exploring the dominant environmental factors influencing its distribution is of significant importance for its conservation.Based on 117 field surveys of the distribution points of Fagus lucida in Hunan,22 environmental variables affecting its distribution were selected.The MaxEnt maximum entropy model was used for prediction.1)The average AUC value of the MaxEnt model is 0.933,indicating reliable predictive accuracy making it effective in predicting suitable areas for Fagus lucida.2)The four key factors that limit the current distribution of Fagus lucida in Hunan are the seasonal variation coefficient of precipitation,average temperature in the driest season,annual rainfall,and average temperature in the wettest season.3)The total suitable habitat area for Fagus lucida in Hunan Province is 9.30×104 km2 with 3.10×104 km2 being highly to moderately suitable areas,mainly distributed in the Xuefeng Shan,Nanling,and Heng Shan mountain ranges,including the western part of Shaoyang,the southern part of Huaihua Shi,the northwestern part of Loudi,the southwestern part of Yiyang,and the northern part of Hengyang.The area of low suitability is 6.20×104 km2,mainly concentrated in the low-altitude areas of Changde,Yueyang,Yiyang,Changsha and Hengyang.Climate is the main factor affecting the geographical distribution pattern of Fagus lucida in Hunan.In areas such as Shaoyang,Huaihua Shi,Loudi,Hengyang and Yiyang,annual precipitation is sufficient,and there is low seasonal precipitation variability,especially in high-altitude sunny or semi-sunny slope,which may be suitable for the introduction and protection of Fagus lucida.

Key words: MaxEnt model, Fagus lucida, potential suitable areas

中图分类号:

S771.8