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气候变暖背景下湖北省油菜生长季气候适宜性分析

花匠小妙招
2024-12-28 08:25

摘要： 为明确湖北省油菜生长季的气候适宜性，利用湖北省76个国家气象观测站1963—1993年和1993—2023年2个气候年代的逐日平均气温、降水量、日照时数数据，构建湖北省油菜生长季气候适宜度模型，利用ArcGIS软件对1963—1993年、1993—2023年2个气候年代的湖北省油菜生长季的气候资源和气候适宜度的时空变化特征进行分析。结果表明，湖北省油菜生长季气候资源变化特征为平均气温南部高，西北部、西南部低；累计降水量东南部、西南部多，西北部少；累计日照时数由北部向西南部递减。整体上看，平均气温呈上升趋势，累计降水量和日照时数均呈减少趋势。气温适宜度低值区位于西北部的南部和西南部的西部，其他地区高；降水适宜度中北部高、东南部低；日照适宜度由东北部向西南部递减。气温适宜度和降水适宜度均呈增加趋势，日照适宜度呈减少趋势。利用ArcGIS自然断点法依据综合气候适宜度，将湖北省划分为最适宜、适宜和不适宜油菜种植区域。最适宜区主要分布在湖北省的中部、东部的大部地区以及西北部的十堰，不适宜区主要分布在西部高海拔区域，1993—2023年仅神农架东北部为不适宜区。1963—1993年最适宜区面积约占湖北省总面积的70.8%，1993—2023年有9.7%的区域由适宜区转为最适宜区，而不适宜区面积减少了3.8%。在气候变暖的背景下，湖北省油菜生长季热量资源和降水资源更加适宜油菜的生长，日照资源则逐渐不利于油菜的生长，气候资源总体适宜油菜的生长，且适宜油菜种植的区域面积呈增加趋势。

关键词: 油菜, 气候变暖, 气候适宜性, 气候区划, 湖北省

Abstract: In order to clarify the climate suitability during the rape growing season of Hubei Province,the climate suitability models were constructed during the rape growing season of Hubei Province,which was based on the daily data of average temperature,precipitation,sunshine hours of 76 stations in Hubei Province from 1963 to 1993 and from 1993 to 2023. ArcGIS software was used to analyze the spatio‑temporal characteristics of climate resources and climate suitability during the rape growing season of Hubei Province in 1963—1993 and 1993—2023.The results showed that,during the rape growing season of Hubei Province,average temperature was higher in the south and lower in the northwest and southwest;Accumulated precipitation was more in the southeast and southwest，less in the northwest;Accumulated sunshine hours decreased from north to southwest.On the whole,average temperature exhibited an increasing trend,accumulated precipitation and sunshine hours exhibited a decreasing trend.The low value of temperature suitability was in the south part of the northwest and west part of the southwest,and the high value was in the other areas in Hubei Province;Precipitation suitability was higher in the middle and north parts while lower in the southeast part；Sunshine suitability decreased from northeast to southwest. Temperature suitability and precipitation suitability exhibited an increasing trend,while sunshine suitability exhibited a decreasing trend.According to the value of comprehensive climate suitability,Hubei Province was divided into the most suitable，suitable and unsuitable areas to plant rape by natural breaks of ArcGIS software.The most suitable areas were distributed mainly over the middle and east parts of Hubei Province and Shiyan in the northwest，while the unsuitable areas were distributed mainly in high altitude areas of the west in Hubei Province,which was only distributed in the northeast of Shennongjia in 1993—2023.The most suitable areas accounted for about 70.8% of the total areas in Hubei in 1963—1993,about 9.7% of the suitable areas changed to the most suitable areas in 1993—2023,while the unsuitable areas decreased by about 3.8%.Under the climate warming,heat and precipitation resources are more suitable for rape growth,but sunshine resources are not suitable for rape growth gradually，the climate resources are generally suitable for rape growth in Hubei Province,and the area increased which is suitable to plant rape.

Key words: Rape, Climate warming, Climate suitability, Climate division, Hubei Province

中图分类号:

S565.4