秦巴山区夏季NDVI变化特征及其对气候因子的响应
摘要：
基于2001—2019年夏季逐月NDVI数据和2—8月气象数据，对秦巴山区NDVI变化趋势、NDVI对气候因子变化的时滞效应进行分析。结果表明：秦巴山区NDVI整体呈增加趋势，极显著增加面积占比最大，为77.1%。NDVI与气温、降水均以正相关为主，且与气温的相关性高于降水。NDVI对气候因子变化的时滞响应存在地域差异，在研究区西部NDVI对气温变化具有及时性，对降水变化以滞后2个月为主；在中部响应时间具有纬度差异，对气温和降水变化由北向南分别以滞后1个月、0个月和0个月、3个月为主；在东北部对气温、降水变化均以滞后3个月为主，在东南部对气温变化具有及时性，对降水变化以滞后3个月为主。本研究为秦巴山区夏季暴雨及其诱发的地质灾害的预警提供参考依据。
关键词: NDVI, 气候因子, 趋势分析, 秦巴山区, 时滞响应
Abstract:
Monthly summer NDVI and meteorological data from February to August, 2001-2019, were used to analyze the changes in NDVI and the time lag effects of NDVI on climate factors in the Qinling-Daba Mountains. The results showed that NDVI presented an overall increasing trend in the Qinling-Daba Mountains, and the area with a highly significant increase in NDVI accounted for the largest proportion, with a value of 77.1%. There were positive correlations between NDVI and the temperature and precipitation, in which the correlations between NDVI and temperature were higher than those with precipitation. The response of the NDVI to climate factor changes showed significant time lag effects, and the spatial distributions of the lag time had regional differences. In the western regions of the Qinling-Daba Mountains, NDVI had a timely response to temperature changes and a 2-month lag response to precipitation changes. In the central regions, the lag time of the NDVI responses to temperature and precipitation changes varied with latitude. There were generally 1-and 0-month lag responses for temperature changes and 0-and 3-month lag responses for precipitation changes from north to south, respectively. In the northeastern regions there was a 3-month temporal lag in NDVI to the changes in temperature and precipitation. In the southeastern regions, NDVI had a timely response to temperature change and a 3-month lag response to precipitation change. This study provides scientific basis for summer storm and geological disaster warnings in the Qinling-Daba Mountains.
Key words: NDVI, climate factors, trend analysis, the Qinling-Daba Mountains, time lag responses
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