2001—2017年蒙古高原不同植被返青期变化及其对气候变化的响应
摘要： 利用2001—2017年MODIS NDVI数据和气象观测数据，在NDVI数据进行S-G和HANTS平滑的基础上，采用累计NDVI的Logistic曲线曲率极值法、Logistic曲线曲率变化率法和动态阈值法等3种返青期识别方法研究了蒙古高原植被返青期，并在植被类型尺度上分析了返青期对气候变化的响应特征。结果表明：在研究区内，虽然SG方法略优于HANTS方法，但两者均对返青期识别的影响较小，总体上累计NDVI的Logistic曲线曲率极值法较适用于蒙古高原植被返青期识别；蒙古高原平均返青期在124 d左右，其中，西南部和肯特山脉地区返青期最早，杭爱山脉和大兴安岭西侧返青期最晚，总体上呈微弱的提前趋势（-0.04 d·a-1）；从变化趋势的空间差异看，杭爱山脉地区呈明显的推迟趋势，而在大兴安岭、肯特山脉、大湖盆地和内蒙古中西部呈明显的提前趋势；除森林植被外（-0.67 d·a-1），其他植被类型返青期变化不明显；蒙古高原植被返青期与返青期前特别是3月份的温度呈负相关，而与上一年秋冬季的降水呈正相关。
关键词: 气候变化, Penman-Monteith模型, 需水量, 缺水量, 冬小麦
Abstract: With MODIS NDVI data from 2001 to 2017 smoothed by the S-G and HANTS methods, we applied three phenological extraction models (the cumulative NDVI based Logistic curvature (CUM), rate of change of curvature (RCC), dynamic threshold method) to identify the start of growing season (SOS) in the Mongolian Plateau. The response characteristics of the SOS to climate change were analyzed on the vegetation type scale. The results showed that although the S-G method was slightly better than the HANTS method, both of them had relatively less influence on extracting the SOS. Among the three phenological extraction methods, CUM method had better extraction accuracy. The average SOS of the Mongolian Plateau was approximately 124 d. Spatially, the earlier SOS was observed in the southwestern part of the plateau and the Hentiy Mountain areas, whereas the later SOS occurred in Hangay Mountains and western part of the Greater Khingan Mountain. Temporally, the SOS generally showed a weak advancing trend (-0.04 d·a-1). Spatially, the delayed SOS was observed in the Hangay Mountains, and the advanced SOS occurred in the Greater Khingan Mountain, Hentiy Mountain, the Great Lakes basin, and central and western Inner Mongolia. At the vegetation type scale, expect for the forest vegetation (-0.67 d·a-1), there were no apparent trends of SOS in other vegetation types. The temperature prior to the SOS, especially in March, negatively correlated with the SOS in the Mongolian Plateau, and the precipitation in the autumn and winter of the previous year had a positive correlation with the SOS.
Key words: water requirement, water deficit, winter wheat., climate change, Penman-Monteith equation
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