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中国冰川变化对气候变化的响应程度研究

花匠小妙招
2024-11-06 19:42

理清冰川变化对气候变化的响应程度、揭示响应度的空间变化规律，是开展冰川变化预估及其对社会经济影响程度量化研究的基础。使用1958-2010年西部地区150个气象站点的夏季平均气温和年降水量资料、中国第一、二次冰川编目数据，通过夏季平均气温和年降水量变化趋势值定量反映气候变化，以冰川面积变化率表征冰川变化，借助GIS技术平台，采用参照对比方法，从宏观层面研究了中国西部冰川变化对气候变化的响应程度。依据等分分类法（Equal Interval），将响应程度分为极低度响应、低度响应、中度响应、高度响应、极高度响应5级。结果表明：中国冰川变化对气候变化的响应方式与程度不同，对夏季平均气温变化表现为正响应，而对年降水量变化主要表现为负响应，冰川分布区年降水量增加带来的冰川积累量增多不足以抵消因温度升高而增加的消融量，升温是中国西部冰川快速退缩的主导性因素。就整体而言，冰川变化对夏季平均气温变化的响应程度相对较低，但局部地区冰川变化对温度变化高度敏感，响应程度高与极高。不同类型冰川的变化对夏季平均气温变化的响应程度亦不同，海洋型冰川的变化以中高度响应为主，极大陆型冰川的变化主要呈现极低、低响应程度，而大陆型冰川变化的响应程度呈两级化。

Abstract

Clarifying the responsivity of glacier to climate change and revealing the spatial variation of the responsivity are the basis for carrying out a quantitative research of glacier change and the quantization study of glacier change influence on the society economy. Using the summer temperature and precipitation records from 1958 through 2010 from 150 meteorological stations in the western regions of China and the first and second “Glacier Inventory of China”, climate change and glacier change were identified quantitatively with the change rates of glacierized area. The methods of referencing and comparison were used innovatively. The response of glacier to climate change was studied in West China by geographic information system (GIS) technology. According to equal interval classification method, the responsivity was classified into five classes:extremely low, low, medium, high and extremely high responsivities. The results showed that the degree and style of glacier response to climate change was various, which had positive response to summer temperature change and negative response to precipitation change. Moreover, glacier accumulation increase due to precipitation increase in the glacierized area is not sufficient to offset the ablation increase due to air temperature increase. Warming is the decisive factor for glacier retreat in West China. On the whole, glacier change had low response to summer temperature change, but had extremely high sensitivity on temperature change with high or extremely high response in some areas. Different types of glacier change have different degree of response to summer temperature change. The maritime glaciers had medium or high responsivity. However, extreme-continental glacier change had extremely low or low responsivity; continental glaciers had two polarized responsivity.

关键词

冰川变化 /气候变化 /响应程度 /中国{{custom_keyword}} /

Key words

glacier change /climate change /responsivity /China{{custom_keyword}} /

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